BestFantasyPicks • Weekly Intelligence

NFL Highest Scoring Games This Week

Pat's Intelligence analyzes current player projections, roles, availability, matchup context, defensive weaknesses and touchdown opportunity to identify potential scoring and fantasy environments. See which games the model likes most and how that outlook compares with sportsbook game totals.

Expected touchdowns and sportsbook points are different measurements. We compare their relative positions in the weekly slate, never subtract points from touchdowns.

Explore current player projections →

This week's offensive TD outlook

These rankings use BestFantasyPicks' modeled offensive touchdown opportunity. They are not predicted final scores or sportsbook totals. Only games with validated coverage on both teams receive a rank.

Projections updated Mon, Nov 2, 8:12 AM EST • Schedule updated Mon, Nov 2, 8:11 AM EST

Pat Rank #1Highest Scoring Potential

DAL @ IND

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

4.93

Expected Offensive TDs

DAL

2.44

Expected offensive TDs

IND

2.49

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

51.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #1 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Pat & Market Agree — High Scoring

Why this game ranks here

DAL

Javonte Williams leads at 0.82 expected TDs.

Javonte Williams: favorable rushing-TD matchup (32.7/100).

IND

Jonathan Taylor leads at 0.90 expected TDs.

Jonathan Taylor: favorable rushing-TD matchup (22.2/100).

QB coverage

Dak Prescott and Daniel Jones are validated starters.

Availability: Questionable — George Pickens.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.86 receiving TDs and 2.08 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. DAL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Javonte Williams at 0.82 offensive TDs, with 70.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Javonte Williams's rushing-TD matchup against IND is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 32.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). DAL's validated current starting QB is Dak Prescott (100.0% expected snaps). IND's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jonathan Taylor at 0.90 offensive TDs, with 69.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jonathan Taylor's rushing-TD matchup against DAL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 22.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). IND's validated current starting QB is Daniel Jones (98.0% expected snaps). Current availability is questionable for George Pickens; their status may change this outlook.

  • Javonte Williams — 0.718 rushing TDs + 0.099 receiving TDs • 70.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Javonte Williams — defense rating 32.7/100 against IND • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Dak Prescott — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
  • Jonathan Taylor — 0.775 rushing TDs + 0.122 receiving TDs • 69.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Jonathan Taylor — defense rating 22.2/100 against DAL • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Daniel Jones — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Dak Prescott

    QB • DAL • 20.50 DK projected

  • Jonathan Taylor

    RB • IND • 19.47 DK projected

  • CeeDee Lamb

    WR • DAL • 17.47 DK projected

  • Javonte Williams

    RB • DAL • 15.66 DK projected

Pat Rank #2Highest Scoring Potential

BUF @ MIN

Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

4.75

Expected Offensive TDs

BUF

2.91

Expected offensive TDs

MIN

1.84

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

46.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #7 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Pat More Bullish

Why this game ranks here

BUF

James Cook leads at 0.81 expected TDs.

MIN

Jordan Mason leads at 0.35 expected TDs.

Jordan Mason: favorable rushing-TD matchup (18.7/100).

QB coverage

Josh Allen and Kyler Murray are validated starters.

Availability: Questionable — Dalton Kincaid, DJ Moore.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.55 receiving TDs and 2.19 rushing TDs across these offenses. 11 projected offensive players have High role confidence. BUF's largest modeled scorer contribution is James Cook at 0.81 offensive TDs, with 60.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. BUF's validated current starting QB is Josh Allen (98.3% expected snaps). MIN's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jordan Mason at 0.35 offensive TDs, with 45.7% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Jordan Mason's rushing-TD matchup against BUF is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 18.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). MIN's validated current starting QB is Kyler Murray (100.0% expected snaps). Current availability is questionable for Dalton Kincaid, DJ Moore; their status may change this outlook.

  • James Cook — 0.724 rushing TDs + 0.083 receiving TDs • 60.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Josh Allen — validated current starting QB • 98.3% expected snaps
  • Jordan Mason — 0.324 rushing TDs + 0.021 receiving TDs • 45.7% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
  • Jordan Mason — defense rating 18.7/100 against BUF • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Kyler Murray — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Josh Allen

    QB • BUF • 21.64 DK projected

  • James Cook

    RB • BUF • 19.13 DK projected

  • Kyler Murray

    QB • MIN • 17.05 DK projected

  • Justin Jefferson

    WR • MIN • 12.13 DK projected

Pat Rank #3High Scoring Potential

DET @ MIA

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

4.44

Expected Offensive TDs

DET

2.79

Expected offensive TDs

MIA

1.65

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

49.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #4 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Pat & Market Agree — High Scoring

Why this game ranks here

DET

Jahmyr Gibbs leads at 0.97 expected TDs.

Sam LaPorta: favorable receiving-TD matchup (16.9/100).

MIA

Ollie Gordon II leads at 0.40 expected TDs.

Greg Dulcich: favorable receiving-TD matchup (10.4/100).

QB coverage

Jared Goff and Malik Willis are validated starters.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.93 receiving TDs and 1.51 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. DET's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jahmyr Gibbs at 0.97 offensive TDs, with 78.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Sam LaPorta's receiving-TD matchup against MIA is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 16.9/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). DET's validated current starting QB is Jared Goff (98.3% expected snaps). MIA's largest modeled scorer contribution is Ollie Gordon II at 0.40 offensive TDs, with 76.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Greg Dulcich's receiving-TD matchup against DET is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 10.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). MIA's validated current starting QB is Malik Willis (100.0% expected snaps).

  • Jahmyr Gibbs — 0.679 rushing TDs + 0.293 receiving TDs • 78.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Sam LaPorta — defense rating 16.9/100 against MIA • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
  • Jared Goff — validated current starting QB • 98.3% expected snaps
  • Ollie Gordon II — 0.367 rushing TDs + 0.029 receiving TDs • 76.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Greg Dulcich — defense rating 10.4/100 against DET • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
  • Malik Willis — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Jahmyr Gibbs

    RB • DET • 27.76 DK projected

  • Jared Goff

    QB • DET • 21.32 DK projected

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown

    WR • DET • 20.31 DK projected

  • Malik Willis

    QB • MIA • 18.00 DK projected

Pat Rank #4High Scoring Potential

JAX @ BAL

Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

4.20

Expected Offensive TDs

JAX

2.22

Expected offensive TDs

BAL

1.98

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

43.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #9 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Pat More Bullish

Why this game ranks here

JAX

Bhayshul Tuten leads at 0.70 expected TDs.

Bhayshul Tuten: favorable rushing-TD matchup (33.1/100).

BAL

Derrick Henry leads at 0.45 expected TDs.

Mark Andrews: favorable receiving-TD matchup (37.7/100).

QB coverage

Trevor Lawrence and Tyler Huntley are validated starters.

Availability: Questionable — Jakobi Meyers.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.52 receiving TDs and 1.68 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. JAX's largest modeled scorer contribution is Bhayshul Tuten at 0.70 offensive TDs, with 58.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Bhayshul Tuten's rushing-TD matchup against BAL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 33.1/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). JAX's validated current starting QB is Trevor Lawrence (98.0% expected snaps). BAL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Derrick Henry at 0.45 offensive TDs, with 51.3% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Mark Andrews's receiving-TD matchup against JAX is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 37.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). BAL's validated current starting QB is Tyler Huntley (98.0% expected snaps). Current availability is questionable for Jakobi Meyers; their status may change this outlook.

  • Bhayshul Tuten — 0.591 rushing TDs + 0.114 receiving TDs • 58.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Bhayshul Tuten — defense rating 33.1/100 against BAL • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Trevor Lawrence — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
  • Derrick Henry — 0.420 rushing TDs + 0.026 receiving TDs • 51.3% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
  • Mark Andrews — defense rating 37.7/100 against JAX • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
  • Tyler Huntley — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Trevor Lawrence

    QB • JAX • 22.42 DK projected

  • Zay Flowers

    WR • BAL • 16.08 DK projected

  • Tyler Huntley

    QB • BAL • 15.73 DK projected

  • Bhayshul Tuten

    RB • JAX • 14.28 DK projected

Pat Rank #5Above Average

LV @ SF

Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

4.20

Expected Offensive TDs

LV

2.16

Expected offensive TDs

SF

2.04

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

51.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #1 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Similar / Neutral

Why this game ranks here

LV

Brock Bowers leads at 0.51 expected TDs.

Ashton Jeanty: favorable receiving-TD matchup (26.0/100).

SF

Christian McCaffrey leads at 0.67 expected TDs.

George Kittle: favorable receiving-TD matchup (17.9/100).

QB coverage

Kirk Cousins and Brock Purdy are validated starters.

Availability: Questionable — Jack Bech.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.83 receiving TDs and 1.36 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. LV's largest modeled scorer contribution is Brock Bowers at 0.51 offensive TDs, with 89.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Ashton Jeanty's receiving-TD matchup against SF is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 26.0/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). LV's validated current starting QB is Kirk Cousins (100.0% expected snaps). SF's largest modeled scorer contribution is Christian McCaffrey at 0.67 offensive TDs, with 73.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. George Kittle's receiving-TD matchup against LV is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 17.9/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). SF's validated current starting QB is Brock Purdy (100.0% expected snaps). Current availability is questionable for Jack Bech; their status may change this outlook.

  • Brock Bowers — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.513 receiving TDs • 89.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Ashton Jeanty — defense rating 26.0/100 against SF • Defense vs RB receiving TDs (LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Kirk Cousins — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
  • Christian McCaffrey — 0.414 rushing TDs + 0.254 receiving TDs • 73.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • George Kittle — defense rating 17.9/100 against LV • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
  • Brock Purdy — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Brock Purdy

    QB • SF • 22.24 DK projected

  • Christian McCaffrey

    RB • SF • 20.52 DK projected

  • Kirk Cousins

    QB • LV • 18.74 DK projected

  • Brock Bowers

    TE • LV • 17.35 DK projected

Pat Rank #6Above Average

CHI @ SEA

Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

4.13

Expected Offensive TDs

CHI

1.92

Expected offensive TDs

SEA

2.22

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

Unavailable

Pat ranking does not require a market total.

Pat vs Market

Comparison unavailable

Why this game ranks here

CHI

D'Andre Swift leads at 0.60 expected TDs.

Kalif Raymond: favorable receiving-TD matchup (41.5/100).

SEA

Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads at 0.65 expected TDs.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: favorable receiving-TD matchup (48.4/100).

QB coverage

Caleb Williams and Sam Darnold are validated starters.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.62 receiving TDs and 1.52 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. CHI's largest modeled scorer contribution is D'Andre Swift at 0.60 offensive TDs, with 67.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Kalif Raymond's receiving-TD matchup against SEA is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 41.5/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CHI's validated current starting QB is Caleb Williams (98.0% expected snaps). SEA's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 0.65 offensive TDs, with 84.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's receiving-TD matchup against CHI is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 48.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). SEA's validated current starting QB is Sam Darnold (98.0% expected snaps).

  • D'Andre Swift — 0.484 rushing TDs + 0.118 receiving TDs • 67.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Kalif Raymond — defense rating 41.5/100 against SEA • Defense vs WR3 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
  • Caleb Williams — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.653 receiving TDs • 84.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba — defense rating 48.4/100 against CHI • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
  • Sam Darnold — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba

    WR • SEA • 25.65 DK projected

  • Sam Darnold

    QB • SEA • 17.62 DK projected

  • Caleb Williams

    QB • CHI • 16.95 DK projected

  • D'Andre Swift

    RB • CHI • 15.01 DK projected

Pat Rank #7Above Average

GB @ NE

Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

4.10

Expected Offensive TDs

GB

2.21

Expected offensive TDs

NE

1.89

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

47.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #5 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Similar / Neutral

Why this game ranks here

GB

Josh Jacobs leads at 0.68 expected TDs.

Matthew Golden: favorable receiving-TD matchup (40.4/100).

NE

Rhamondre Stevenson leads at 0.63 expected TDs.

Rhamondre Stevenson: favorable rushing-TD matchup (16.5/100).

QB coverage

Jordan Love and Drake Maye are validated starters.

Availability: Questionable — Matthew Golden.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.58 receiving TDs and 1.52 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. GB's largest modeled scorer contribution is Josh Jacobs at 0.68 offensive TDs, with 61.5% expected snaps and High role confidence. Matthew Golden's receiving-TD matchup against NE is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 40.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). GB's validated current starting QB is Jordan Love (100.0% expected snaps). NE's largest modeled scorer contribution is Rhamondre Stevenson at 0.62 offensive TDs, with 68.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Rhamondre Stevenson's rushing-TD matchup against GB is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 16.5/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NE's validated current starting QB is Drake Maye (100.0% expected snaps). Current availability is questionable for Matthew Golden; their status may change this outlook.

  • Josh Jacobs — 0.582 rushing TDs + 0.096 receiving TDs • 61.5% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Matthew Golden — defense rating 40.4/100 against NE • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
  • Jordan Love — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
  • Rhamondre Stevenson — 0.504 rushing TDs + 0.121 receiving TDs • 68.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Rhamondre Stevenson — defense rating 16.5/100 against GB • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Drake Maye — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Drake Maye

    QB • NE • 20.35 DK projected

  • Jordan Love

    QB • GB • 19.96 DK projected

  • Christian Watson

    WR • GB • 15.33 DK projected

  • Rhamondre Stevenson

    RB • NE • 14.75 DK projected

Pat Rank #8Average / Lower Relative Opportunity

CIN @ ATL

Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

4.03

Expected Offensive TDs

CIN

2.13

Expected offensive TDs

ATL

1.90

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

51.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #1 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Pat More Cautious

Why this game ranks here

CIN

Chase Brown leads at 0.70 expected TDs.

Chase Brown: favorable rushing-TD matchup (28.3/100).

ATL

Bijan Robinson leads at 0.58 expected TDs.

Bijan Robinson: favorable rushing-TD matchup (46.8/100).

QB coverage

Joe Burrow and Michael Penix Jr. are validated starters.

Availability: Questionable — Olamide Zaccheaus.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.82 receiving TDs and 1.21 rushing TDs across these offenses. 9 projected offensive players have High role confidence. CIN's largest modeled scorer contribution is Chase Brown at 0.70 offensive TDs, with 68.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Chase Brown's rushing-TD matchup against ATL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 28.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CIN's validated current starting QB is Joe Burrow (98.0% expected snaps). ATL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Bijan Robinson at 0.58 offensive TDs, with 80.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Bijan Robinson's rushing-TD matchup against CIN is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 46.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). ATL's validated current starting QB is Michael Penix Jr. (100.0% expected snaps). Current availability is questionable for Olamide Zaccheaus; their status may change this outlook.

  • Chase Brown — 0.397 rushing TDs + 0.307 receiving TDs • 68.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Chase Brown — defense rating 28.3/100 against ATL • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Joe Burrow — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
  • Bijan Robinson — 0.438 rushing TDs + 0.138 receiving TDs • 80.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Bijan Robinson — defense rating 46.8/100 against CIN • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Michael Penix Jr. — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Joe Burrow

    QB • CIN • 25.10 DK projected

  • Tee Higgins

    WR • CIN • 19.50 DK projected

  • Bijan Robinson

    RB • ATL • 19.36 DK projected

  • Ja'Marr Chase

    WR • CIN • 18.71 DK projected

Pat Rank #9Average / Lower Relative Opportunity

LAR @ WAS

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

3.78

Expected Offensive TDs

LAR

2.31

Expected offensive TDs

WAS

1.47

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

47.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #5 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Similar / Neutral

Why this game ranks here

LAR

Puka Nacua leads at 0.76 expected TDs.

Puka Nacua: favorable receiving-TD matchup (21.8/100).

WAS

Rachaad White leads at 0.27 expected TDs.

Antonio Williams: favorable receiving-TD matchup (40.3/100).

QB coverage

Matthew Stafford and Jayden Daniels are validated starters.

Availability: Questionable — Jordan Whittington, John Bates, Treylon Burks.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.57 receiving TDs and 1.20 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. LAR's largest modeled scorer contribution is Puka Nacua at 0.76 offensive TDs, with 90.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Puka Nacua's receiving-TD matchup against WAS is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 21.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). LAR's validated current starting QB is Matthew Stafford (100.0% expected snaps). WAS's largest modeled scorer contribution is Rachaad White at 0.27 offensive TDs, with 58.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Antonio Williams's receiving-TD matchup against LAR is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 40.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). WAS's validated current starting QB is Jayden Daniels (100.0% expected snaps). Current availability is questionable for Jordan Whittington, John Bates, Treylon Burks; their status may change this outlook.

  • Puka Nacua — 0.060 rushing TDs + 0.698 receiving TDs • 90.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Puka Nacua — defense rating 21.8/100 against WAS • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
  • Matthew Stafford — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
  • Rachaad White — 0.216 rushing TDs + 0.054 receiving TDs • 58.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Antonio Williams — defense rating 40.3/100 against LAR • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
  • Jayden Daniels — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Puka Nacua

    WR • LAR • 26.37 DK projected

  • Matthew Stafford

    QB • LAR • 22.29 DK projected

  • Jayden Daniels

    QB • WAS • 17.67 DK projected

  • Kyren Williams

    RB • LAR • 17.04 DK projected

Pat Rank #10Average / Lower Relative Opportunity

HOU @ LAC

Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

3.73

Expected Offensive TDs

HOU

1.75

Expected offensive TDs

LAC

1.99

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

41.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #12 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Pat More Bullish

Why this game ranks here

HOU

Woody Marks leads at 0.59 expected TDs.

Woody Marks: favorable rushing-TD matchup (20.4/100).

LAC

Omarion Hampton leads at 0.31 expected TDs.

Omarion Hampton: favorable rushing-TD matchup (37.0/100).

QB coverage

C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert are validated starters.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.52 receiving TDs and 1.22 rushing TDs across these offenses. 7 projected offensive players have High role confidence. HOU's largest modeled scorer contribution is Woody Marks at 0.59 offensive TDs, with 84.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Woody Marks's rushing-TD matchup against LAC is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 20.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). HOU's validated current starting QB is C.J. Stroud (100.0% expected snaps). LAC's largest modeled scorer contribution is Omarion Hampton at 0.31 offensive TDs, with 36.7% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Omarion Hampton's rushing-TD matchup against HOU is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 37.0/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). LAC's validated current starting QB is Justin Herbert (100.0% expected snaps).

  • Woody Marks — 0.416 rushing TDs + 0.170 receiving TDs • 84.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Woody Marks — defense rating 20.4/100 against LAC • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • C.J. Stroud — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
  • Omarion Hampton — 0.251 rushing TDs + 0.060 receiving TDs • 36.7% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
  • Omarion Hampton — defense rating 37.0/100 against HOU • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Justin Herbert — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • C.J. Stroud

    QB • HOU • 16.45 DK projected

  • Justin Herbert

    QB • LAC • 15.86 DK projected

  • Woody Marks

    RB • HOU • 14.41 DK projected

  • Nico Collins

    WR • HOU • 13.11 DK projected

Pat Rank #11Average / Lower Relative Opportunity

DEN @ CAR

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

3.59

Expected Offensive TDs

DEN

1.83

Expected offensive TDs

CAR

1.76

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

43.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #9 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Similar / Neutral

Why this game ranks here

DEN

Jonah Coleman leads at 0.40 expected TDs.

Jonah Coleman: favorable rushing-TD matchup (10.1/100).

CAR

Chuba Hubbard leads at 0.46 expected TDs.

Chuba Hubbard: favorable receiving-TD matchup (30.5/100).

QB coverage

Bo Nix and Bryce Young are validated starters.

Availability: Questionable — Jaylen Waddle.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.52 receiving TDs and 1.07 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. DEN's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jonah Coleman at 0.40 offensive TDs, with 51.7% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Jonah Coleman's rushing-TD matchup against CAR is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 10.1/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). DEN's validated current starting QB is Bo Nix (100.0% expected snaps). CAR's largest modeled scorer contribution is Chuba Hubbard at 0.46 offensive TDs, with 82.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Chuba Hubbard's receiving-TD matchup against DEN is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 30.5/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CAR's validated current starting QB is Bryce Young (98.0% expected snaps). Current availability is questionable for Jaylen Waddle; their status may change this outlook.

  • Jonah Coleman — 0.293 rushing TDs + 0.107 receiving TDs • 51.7% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
  • Jonah Coleman — defense rating 10.1/100 against CAR • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Bo Nix — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
  • Chuba Hubbard — 0.261 rushing TDs + 0.201 receiving TDs • 82.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Chuba Hubbard — defense rating 30.5/100 against DEN • Defense vs RB receiving TDs (LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Bryce Young — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Bryce Young

    QB • CAR • 17.68 DK projected

  • Bo Nix

    QB • DEN • 16.05 DK projected

  • Tetairoa McMillan

    WR • CAR • 15.39 DK projected

  • Chuba Hubbard

    RB • CAR • 14.76 DK projected

Pat Rank #12Average / Lower Relative Opportunity

NYG @ PHI

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

3.35

Expected Offensive TDs

NYG

1.72

Expected offensive TDs

PHI

1.64

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

40.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #13 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Similar / Neutral

Why this game ranks here

NYG

Malik Nabers leads at 0.50 expected TDs.

Malik Nabers: favorable receiving-TD matchup (32.8/100).

PHI

Dallas Goedert leads at 0.58 expected TDs.

Darius Cooper: favorable receiving-TD matchup (29.8/100).

QB coverage

J.J. McCarthy and Tanner McKee are validated starters.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.53 receiving TDs and 0.82 rushing TDs across these offenses. 7 projected offensive players have High role confidence. NYG's largest modeled scorer contribution is Malik Nabers at 0.50 offensive TDs, with 83.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Malik Nabers's receiving-TD matchup against PHI is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 32.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NYG's validated current starting QB is J.J. McCarthy (98.0% expected snaps). PHI's largest modeled scorer contribution is Dallas Goedert at 0.58 offensive TDs, with 78.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Darius Cooper's receiving-TD matchup against NYG is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 29.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). PHI's validated current starting QB is Tanner McKee (100.0% expected snaps).

  • Malik Nabers — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.499 receiving TDs • 83.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Malik Nabers — defense rating 32.8/100 against PHI • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
  • J.J. McCarthy — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
  • Dallas Goedert — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.583 receiving TDs • 78.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Darius Cooper — defense rating 29.8/100 against NYG • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
  • Tanner McKee — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Malik Nabers

    WR • NYG • 20.71 DK projected

  • Tanner McKee

    QB • PHI • 15.52 DK projected

  • Dallas Goedert

    TE • PHI • 12.18 DK projected

  • J.J. McCarthy

    QB • NYG • 12.18 DK projected

Pat Rank #13Average / Lower Relative Opportunity

CLE @ NO

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

3.32

Expected Offensive TDs

CLE

1.68

Expected offensive TDs

NO

1.64

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

43.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #9 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Similar / Neutral

Why this game ranks here

CLE

Harold Fannin Jr. leads at 0.39 expected TDs.

Harold Fannin Jr.: favorable receiving-TD matchup (43.2/100).

NO

Chris Olave leads at 0.44 expected TDs.

Kendre Miller: favorable rushing-TD matchup (41.7/100).

QB coverage

Deshaun Watson and Tyler Shough are validated starters.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.38 receiving TDs and 0.94 rushing TDs across these offenses. 11 projected offensive players have High role confidence. CLE's largest modeled scorer contribution is Harold Fannin Jr. at 0.39 offensive TDs, with 86.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Harold Fannin Jr.'s receiving-TD matchup against NO is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 43.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CLE's validated current starting QB is Deshaun Watson (98.0% expected snaps). NO's largest modeled scorer contribution is Chris Olave at 0.44 offensive TDs, with 75.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Kendre Miller's rushing-TD matchup against CLE is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 41.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NO's validated current starting QB is Tyler Shough (99.0% expected snaps).

  • Harold Fannin Jr. — 0.050 rushing TDs + 0.335 receiving TDs • 86.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Harold Fannin Jr. — defense rating 43.2/100 against NO • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
  • Deshaun Watson — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
  • Chris Olave — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.438 receiving TDs • 75.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Kendre Miller — defense rating 41.7/100 against CLE • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
  • Tyler Shough — validated current starting QB • 99.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Tyler Shough

    QB • NO • 17.19 DK projected

  • Deshaun Watson

    QB • CLE • 16.82 DK projected

  • Chris Olave

    WR • NO • 16.63 DK projected

  • Harold Fannin Jr.

    TE • CLE • 13.70 DK projected

Pat Rank #14Average / Lower Relative Opportunity

NYJ @ KC

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM EST • Week 8

Pat's Intelligence

3.23

Expected Offensive TDs

NYJ

1.61

Expected offensive TDs

KC

1.62

Expected offensive TDs

Sportsbook Total

46.5

Points • game over/under

Market rank #7 among covered games with totals

DraftKings live refresh • As of Mon, Nov 2, 7:11 AM EST

Pat vs Market

Pat More Cautious

Why this game ranks here

NYJ

Braelon Allen leads at 0.47 expected TDs.

Mason Taylor: favorable receiving-TD matchup (35.3/100).

KC

Kenneth Walker III leads at 0.47 expected TDs.

Xavier Worthy: favorable receiving-TD matchup (31.0/100).

QB coverage

Geno Smith and Patrick Mahomes are validated starters.

More analysis

Current validated player projections contribute 2.10 receiving TDs and 1.12 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. NYJ's largest modeled scorer contribution is Braelon Allen at 0.47 offensive TDs, with 82.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Mason Taylor's receiving-TD matchup against KC is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 35.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NYJ's validated current starting QB is Geno Smith (100.0% expected snaps). KC's largest modeled scorer contribution is Kenneth Walker III at 0.47 offensive TDs, with 76.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Xavier Worthy's receiving-TD matchup against NYJ is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 31.0/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). KC's validated current starting QB is Patrick Mahomes (100.0% expected snaps).

  • Braelon Allen — 0.387 rushing TDs + 0.080 receiving TDs • 82.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Mason Taylor — defense rating 35.3/100 against KC • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
  • Geno Smith — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
  • Kenneth Walker III — 0.394 rushing TDs + 0.080 receiving TDs • 76.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
  • Xavier Worthy — defense rating 31.0/100 against NYJ • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
  • Patrick Mahomes — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Fantasy players to watch

  • Patrick Mahomes

    QB • KC • 19.13 DK projected

  • Kenneth Walker III

    RB • KC • 18.02 DK projected

  • Geno Smith

    QB • NYJ • 14.96 DK projected

  • Braelon Allen

    RB • NYJ • 14.07 DK projected

How to read the rankings

Pat's rank sums final role-capped, team-budget-adjusted rushing and receiving touchdowns. Passing touchdowns are excluded to avoid counting the same score twice. Field goals, conversions and defensive scoring are not included. High scoring potential describes relative weekly opportunity, not certainty.

Comparison labels use the same set of covered games with available market totals: top-quarter placement in both outlooks indicates agreement; a gap of at least 25 percentile points indicates a more bullish or cautious model view. Missing totals do not affect Pat's ranking. Some existing model components use conservative sportsbook-environment adjustments.

Sportsbook totals are DraftKings over/unders. A projection-time snapshot may appear while live market context refreshes; each available total shows its source and timestamp.