Historical BestFantasyPicks projection snapshot for NFL Week 7. This saved full-week preview is not a current recommendation or a record of final scores.
Analysis captured Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT • Frozen Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 PM EDT • Published Tue, Oct 27, 8:15 AM EDT
Projections updated Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT • Schedule updated Thu, Oct 22, 7:55 PM EDT
Final modeled rushing and receiving TDs only; passing TDs are excluded to avoid double counting. These are not predicted final scores. Sportsbook totals are the saved market context at capture time.
Pat Rank #1Highest Scoring Potential
DAL @ PHI
Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
4.72
Expected Offensive TDs
DAL
2.52
Expected offensive TDs
PHI
2.20
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
44.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #6 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Pat More Bullish
Why this game ranks here
- DAL
Javonte Williams leads at 0.72 expected TDs.
Javonte Williams: favorable rushing-TD matchup (46.2/100).
- PHI
Dallas Goedert leads at 0.51 expected TDs.
DeVonta Smith: favorable receiving-TD matchup (17.2/100).
QB coverage
Dak Prescott and Tanner McKee are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 3.37 receiving TDs and 1.35 rushing TDs across these offenses. 13 projected offensive players have High role confidence. DAL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Javonte Williams at 0.72 offensive TDs, with 77.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Javonte Williams's rushing-TD matchup against PHI is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 46.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). DAL's validated current starting QB is Dak Prescott (98.0% expected snaps). PHI's largest modeled scorer contribution is Dallas Goedert at 0.51 offensive TDs, with 81.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. DeVonta Smith's receiving-TD matchup against DAL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 17.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). PHI's validated current starting QB is Tanner McKee (98.0% expected snaps).
- Javonte Williams — 0.592 rushing TDs + 0.133 receiving TDs • 77.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Javonte Williams — defense rating 46.2/100 against PHI • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Dak Prescott — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Dallas Goedert — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.510 receiving TDs • 81.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- DeVonta Smith — defense rating 17.2/100 against DAL • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Tanner McKee — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Tanner McKee
QB • PHI • 21.67 DK projected
Dak Prescott
QB • DAL • 20.60 DK projected
CeeDee Lamb
WR • DAL • 20.29 DK projected
George Pickens
WR • DAL • 16.29 DK projected
Pat Rank #2Highest Scoring Potential
LAR @ LV
Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
4.71
Expected Offensive TDs
LAR
2.64
Expected offensive TDs
LV
2.06
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
48.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #4 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- LAR
Kyren Williams leads at 0.82 expected TDs.
Puka Nacua: favorable receiving-TD matchup (33.7/100).
- LV
Brock Bowers leads at 0.49 expected TDs.
Jalen Nailor: favorable receiving-TD matchup (29.7/100).
QB coverage
Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 3.43 receiving TDs and 1.27 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. LAR's largest modeled scorer contribution is Kyren Williams at 0.82 offensive TDs, with 76.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Puka Nacua's receiving-TD matchup against LV is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 33.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). LAR's validated current starting QB is Matthew Stafford (98.0% expected snaps). LV's largest modeled scorer contribution is Brock Bowers at 0.49 offensive TDs, with 83.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jalen Nailor's receiving-TD matchup against LAR is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 29.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). LV's validated current starting QB is Kirk Cousins (98.0% expected snaps).
- Kyren Williams — 0.564 rushing TDs + 0.260 receiving TDs • 76.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Puka Nacua — defense rating 33.7/100 against LV • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Matthew Stafford — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Brock Bowers — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.493 receiving TDs • 83.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Jalen Nailor — defense rating 29.7/100 against LAR • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Kirk Cousins — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Puka Nacua
WR • LAR • 27.39 DK projected
Matthew Stafford
QB • LAR • 24.44 DK projected
Kyren Williams
RB • LAR • 20.77 DK projected
Kirk Cousins
QB • LV • 17.47 DK projected
Pat Rank #3High Scoring Potential
GB @ DET
Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
4.52
Expected Offensive TDs
GB
1.65
Expected offensive TDs
DET
2.87
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
53.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #1 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Pat & Market Agree — High Scoring
Why this game ranks here
- GB
Tucker Kraft leads at 0.50 expected TDs.
Tucker Kraft: favorable receiving-TD matchup (13.7/100).
- DET
Jahmyr Gibbs leads at 1.10 expected TDs.
Jahmyr Gibbs: favorable rushing-TD matchup (16.3/100).
QB coverage
Jordan Love and Jared Goff are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 3.30 receiving TDs and 1.22 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. GB's largest modeled scorer contribution is Tucker Kraft at 0.50 offensive TDs, with 82.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Tucker Kraft's receiving-TD matchup against DET is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 13.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). GB's validated current starting QB is Jordan Love (98.0% expected snaps). DET's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.10 offensive TDs, with 75.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jahmyr Gibbs's rushing-TD matchup against GB is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 16.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). DET's validated current starting QB is Jared Goff (98.0% expected snaps).
- Tucker Kraft — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.496 receiving TDs • 82.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Tucker Kraft — defense rating 13.7/100 against DET • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- Jordan Love — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Jahmyr Gibbs — 0.816 rushing TDs + 0.280 receiving TDs • 75.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Jahmyr Gibbs — defense rating 16.3/100 against GB • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Jared Goff — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB • DET • 27.64 DK projected
Jordan Love
QB • GB • 20.96 DK projected
Jared Goff
QB • DET • 20.72 DK projected
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR • DET • 19.41 DK projected
Pat Rank #4High Scoring Potential
CIN @ BAL
Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
4.52
Expected Offensive TDs
CIN
2.24
Expected offensive TDs
BAL
2.28
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
48.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #4 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- CIN
Chase Brown leads at 0.67 expected TDs.
Chase Brown: favorable rushing-TD matchup (31.8/100).
- BAL
Derrick Henry leads at 0.77 expected TDs.
Lamar Jackson: favorable rushing-TD matchup (28.7/100).
QB coverage
Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.86 receiving TDs and 1.65 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. CIN's largest modeled scorer contribution is Chase Brown at 0.67 offensive TDs, with 69.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Chase Brown's rushing-TD matchup against BAL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 31.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CIN's validated current starting QB is Joe Burrow (98.0% expected snaps). BAL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Derrick Henry at 0.77 offensive TDs, with 58.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Lamar Jackson's rushing-TD matchup against CIN is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 28.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). BAL's validated current starting QB is Lamar Jackson (98.0% expected snaps).
- Chase Brown — 0.403 rushing TDs + 0.265 receiving TDs • 69.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Chase Brown — defense rating 31.8/100 against BAL • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Joe Burrow — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Derrick Henry — 0.722 rushing TDs + 0.044 receiving TDs • 58.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Lamar Jackson — defense rating 28.7/100 against CIN • Defense vs QB rushing TDs (2026 personnel-adjusted)
- Lamar Jackson — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Joe Burrow
QB • CIN • 20.41 DK projected
Lamar Jackson
QB • BAL • 17.87 DK projected
Derrick Henry
RB • BAL • 17.41 DK projected
Tee Higgins
WR • CIN • 17.41 DK projected
Pat Rank #5Above Average
NE @ CHI
Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
4.43
Expected Offensive TDs
NE
2.48
Expected offensive TDs
CHI
1.94
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
50.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #2 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- NE
Rhamondre Stevenson leads at 0.62 expected TDs.
A.J. Brown: favorable receiving-TD matchup (41.5/100).
- CHI
D'Andre Swift leads at 0.39 expected TDs.
Luther Burden III: favorable receiving-TD matchup (41.4/100).
QB coverage
Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.94 receiving TDs and 1.48 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. NE's largest modeled scorer contribution is Rhamondre Stevenson at 0.62 offensive TDs, with 65.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. A.J. Brown's receiving-TD matchup against CHI is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 41.5/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NE's validated current starting QB is Drake Maye (98.0% expected snaps). CHI's largest modeled scorer contribution is D'Andre Swift at 0.39 offensive TDs, with 50.3% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Luther Burden III's receiving-TD matchup against NE is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 41.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CHI's validated current starting QB is Caleb Williams (98.0% expected snaps).
- Rhamondre Stevenson — 0.483 rushing TDs + 0.136 receiving TDs • 65.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- A.J. Brown — defense rating 41.5/100 against CHI • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Drake Maye — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- D'Andre Swift — 0.331 rushing TDs + 0.063 receiving TDs • 50.3% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
- Luther Burden III — defense rating 41.4/100 against NE • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Caleb Williams — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Drake Maye
QB • NE • 24.71 DK projected
Caleb Williams
QB • CHI • 17.84 DK projected
D'Andre Swift
RB • CHI • 13.79 DK projected
A.J. Brown
WR • NE • 13.22 DK projected
Pat Rank #6Above Average
SF @ ATL
Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
4.24
Expected Offensive TDs
SF
2.26
Expected offensive TDs
ATL
1.99
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
49.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #3 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- SF
Christian McCaffrey leads at 0.72 expected TDs.
George Kittle: favorable receiving-TD matchup (43.2/100).
- ATL
Bijan Robinson leads at 0.55 expected TDs.
Drake London: favorable receiving-TD matchup (28.5/100).
QB coverage
Brock Purdy and Michael Penix Jr. are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.74 receiving TDs and 1.50 rushing TDs across these offenses. 8 projected offensive players have High role confidence. SF's largest modeled scorer contribution is Christian McCaffrey at 0.72 offensive TDs, with 80.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. George Kittle's receiving-TD matchup against ATL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 43.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). SF's validated current starting QB is Brock Purdy (98.0% expected snaps). ATL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Bijan Robinson at 0.55 offensive TDs, with 73.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Drake London's receiving-TD matchup against SF is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 28.5/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). ATL's validated current starting QB is Michael Penix Jr. (98.0% expected snaps).
- Christian McCaffrey — 0.427 rushing TDs + 0.292 receiving TDs • 80.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- George Kittle — defense rating 43.2/100 against ATL • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- Brock Purdy — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Bijan Robinson — 0.381 rushing TDs + 0.168 receiving TDs • 73.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Drake London — defense rating 28.5/100 against SF • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Michael Penix Jr. — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Brock Purdy
QB • SF • 22.05 DK projected
Bijan Robinson
RB • ATL • 20.96 DK projected
Christian McCaffrey
RB • SF • 19.69 DK projected
Drake London
WR • ATL • 18.82 DK projected
Pat Rank #7Above Average
NYG @ HOU
Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
4.18
Expected Offensive TDs
NYG
2.00
Expected offensive TDs
HOU
2.18
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
42.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #10 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Pat More Bullish
Why this game ranks here
- NYG
Malik Nabers leads at 0.53 expected TDs.
Malik Nabers: favorable receiving-TD matchup (43.3/100).
- HOU
Nico Collins leads at 0.49 expected TDs.
Nico Collins: favorable receiving-TD matchup (44.4/100).
QB coverage
J.J. McCarthy and C.J. Stroud are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.90 receiving TDs and 1.28 rushing TDs across these offenses. 7 projected offensive players have High role confidence. NYG's largest modeled scorer contribution is Malik Nabers at 0.53 offensive TDs, with 84.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Malik Nabers's receiving-TD matchup against HOU is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 43.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NYG's validated current starting QB is J.J. McCarthy (98.0% expected snaps). HOU's largest modeled scorer contribution is Nico Collins at 0.49 offensive TDs, with 71.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Nico Collins's receiving-TD matchup against NYG is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 44.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). HOU's validated current starting QB is C.J. Stroud (98.0% expected snaps).
- Malik Nabers — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.532 receiving TDs • 84.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Malik Nabers — defense rating 43.3/100 against HOU • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- J.J. McCarthy — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Nico Collins — 0.070 rushing TDs + 0.422 receiving TDs • 71.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Nico Collins — defense rating 44.4/100 against NYG • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- C.J. Stroud — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Malik Nabers
WR • NYG • 20.41 DK projected
C.J. Stroud
QB • HOU • 19.09 DK projected
Nico Collins
WR • HOU • 16.46 DK projected
Isaiah Likely
TE • NYG • 13.59 DK projected
Pat Rank #8Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
IND @ MIN
Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
4.09
Expected Offensive TDs
IND
2.31
Expected offensive TDs
MIN
1.78
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
41.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #12 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Pat More Bullish
Why this game ranks here
- IND
Jonathan Taylor leads at 0.77 expected TDs.
- MIN
Aaron Jones leads at 0.47 expected TDs.
Aaron Jones: favorable rushing-TD matchup (31.3/100).
QB coverage
Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.51 receiving TDs and 1.58 rushing TDs across these offenses. 14 projected offensive players have High role confidence. IND's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jonathan Taylor at 0.77 offensive TDs, with 74.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. IND's validated current starting QB is Daniel Jones (98.0% expected snaps). MIN's largest modeled scorer contribution is Aaron Jones at 0.47 offensive TDs, with 80.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Aaron Jones's rushing-TD matchup against IND is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 31.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). MIN's validated current starting QB is Kyler Murray (98.0% expected snaps).
- Jonathan Taylor — 0.680 rushing TDs + 0.094 receiving TDs • 74.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Daniel Jones — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Aaron Jones — 0.367 rushing TDs + 0.099 receiving TDs • 80.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Aaron Jones — defense rating 31.3/100 against IND • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Kyler Murray — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Jonathan Taylor
RB • IND • 17.16 DK projected
Kyler Murray
QB • MIN • 16.10 DK projected
Aaron Jones
RB • MIN • 15.93 DK projected
Daniel Jones
QB • IND • 13.72 DK projected
Pat Rank #9Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
DEN @ ARI
Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
3.87
Expected Offensive TDs
DEN
1.95
Expected offensive TDs
ARI
1.92
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
43.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #9 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- DEN
J.K. Dobbins leads at 0.39 expected TDs.
Jaylen Waddle: favorable receiving-TD matchup (27.0/100).
- ARI
Trey McBride leads at 0.57 expected TDs.
Trey McBride: favorable receiving-TD matchup (48.3/100).
QB coverage
Bo Nix and Jacoby Brissett are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.65 receiving TDs and 1.22 rushing TDs across these offenses. 8 projected offensive players have High role confidence. DEN's largest modeled scorer contribution is J.K. Dobbins at 0.39 offensive TDs, with 45.3% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Jaylen Waddle's receiving-TD matchup against ARI is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 27.0/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). DEN's validated current starting QB is Bo Nix (98.0% expected snaps). ARI's largest modeled scorer contribution is Trey McBride at 0.57 offensive TDs, with 94.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Trey McBride's receiving-TD matchup against DEN is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 48.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). ARI's validated current starting QB is Jacoby Brissett (98.0% expected snaps).
- J.K. Dobbins — 0.346 rushing TDs + 0.048 receiving TDs • 45.3% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
- Jaylen Waddle — defense rating 27.0/100 against ARI • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Bo Nix — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Trey McBride — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.572 receiving TDs • 94.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Trey McBride — defense rating 48.3/100 against DEN • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- Jacoby Brissett — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Trey McBride
TE • ARI • 17.64 DK projected
Jacoby Brissett
QB • ARI • 17.48 DK projected
Bo Nix
QB • DEN • 15.70 DK projected
Michael Wilson
WR • ARI • 12.95 DK projected
Pat Rank #10Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
PIT @ NO
Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
3.61
Expected Offensive TDs
PIT
1.93
Expected offensive TDs
NO
1.68
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
44.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #6 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- PIT
Jaylen Warren leads at 0.56 expected TDs.
Jaylen Warren: favorable rushing-TD matchup (17.6/100).
- NO
Chris Olave leads at 0.48 expected TDs.
Chris Olave: favorable receiving-TD matchup (40.3/100).
QB coverage
Aaron Rodgers and Tyler Shough are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.61 receiving TDs and 0.99 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. PIT's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jaylen Warren at 0.56 offensive TDs, with 86.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jaylen Warren's rushing-TD matchup against NO is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 17.6/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). PIT's validated current starting QB is Aaron Rodgers (98.0% expected snaps). NO's largest modeled scorer contribution is Chris Olave at 0.48 offensive TDs, with 78.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Chris Olave's receiving-TD matchup against PIT is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 40.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NO's validated current starting QB is Tyler Shough (98.0% expected snaps).
- Jaylen Warren — 0.420 rushing TDs + 0.142 receiving TDs • 86.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Jaylen Warren — defense rating 17.6/100 against NO • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Aaron Rodgers — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Chris Olave — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.484 receiving TDs • 78.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Chris Olave — defense rating 40.3/100 against PIT • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Tyler Shough — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Aaron Rodgers
QB • PIT • 20.26 DK projected
Jaylen Warren
RB • PIT • 19.41 DK projected
Chris Olave
WR • NO • 19.23 DK projected
Tyler Shough
QB • NO • 17.76 DK projected
Pat Rank #11Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
TB @ CAR
Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
3.50
Expected Offensive TDs
TB
1.65
Expected offensive TDs
CAR
1.85
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
44.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #6 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Pat More Cautious
Why this game ranks here
- TB
Bucky Irving leads at 0.45 expected TDs.
Bucky Irving: favorable rushing-TD matchup (14.0/100).
- CAR
Tetairoa McMillan leads at 0.47 expected TDs.
Jalen Coker: favorable receiving-TD matchup (21.5/100).
QB coverage
Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.65 receiving TDs and 0.85 rushing TDs across these offenses. 11 projected offensive players have High role confidence. TB's largest modeled scorer contribution is Bucky Irving at 0.45 offensive TDs, with 66.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Bucky Irving's rushing-TD matchup against CAR is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 14.0/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). TB's validated current starting QB is Baker Mayfield (98.0% expected snaps). CAR's largest modeled scorer contribution is Tetairoa McMillan at 0.47 offensive TDs, with 86.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jalen Coker's receiving-TD matchup against TB is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 21.5/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CAR's validated current starting QB is Bryce Young (98.0% expected snaps).
- Bucky Irving — 0.310 rushing TDs + 0.138 receiving TDs • 66.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Bucky Irving — defense rating 14.0/100 against CAR • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Baker Mayfield — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Tetairoa McMillan — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.472 receiving TDs • 86.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Jalen Coker — defense rating 21.5/100 against TB • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Bryce Young — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Bryce Young
QB • CAR • 20.89 DK projected
Tetairoa McMillan
WR • CAR • 18.16 DK projected
Baker Mayfield
QB • TB • 16.17 DK projected
Bucky Irving
RB • TB • 15.29 DK projected
Pat Rank #12Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
KC @ SEA
Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
3.38
Expected Offensive TDs
KC
1.58
Expected offensive TDs
SEA
1.80
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
42.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #10 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- KC
Kenneth Walker III leads at 0.49 expected TDs.
Kenneth Walker III: favorable receiving-TD matchup (31.8/100).
- SEA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads at 0.51 expected TDs.
AJ Barner: favorable receiving-TD matchup (37.6/100).
QB coverage
Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.13 receiving TDs and 1.25 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. KC's largest modeled scorer contribution is Kenneth Walker III at 0.49 offensive TDs, with 74.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Kenneth Walker III's receiving-TD matchup against SEA is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 31.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). KC's validated current starting QB is Patrick Mahomes (98.0% expected snaps). SEA's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 0.51 offensive TDs, with 88.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. AJ Barner's receiving-TD matchup against KC is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 37.6/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). SEA's validated current starting QB is Sam Darnold (98.0% expected snaps).
- Kenneth Walker III — 0.412 rushing TDs + 0.078 receiving TDs • 74.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Kenneth Walker III — defense rating 31.8/100 against SEA • Defense vs RB receiving TDs (LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Patrick Mahomes — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.508 receiving TDs • 88.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- AJ Barner — defense rating 37.6/100 against KC • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- Sam Darnold — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR • SEA • 21.76 DK projected
Kenneth Walker III
RB • KC • 19.43 DK projected
Patrick Mahomes
QB • KC • 17.41 DK projected
Sam Darnold
QB • SEA • 15.64 DK projected
Pat Rank #13Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
MIA @ NYJ
Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
3.31
Expected Offensive TDs
MIA
1.53
Expected offensive TDs
NYJ
1.78
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
39.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #13 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- MIA
Ollie Gordon II leads at 0.33 expected TDs.
Ollie Gordon II: favorable rushing-TD matchup (42.4/100).
- NYJ
Breece Hall leads at 0.34 expected TDs.
Mason Taylor: favorable receiving-TD matchup (23.2/100).
QB coverage
Malik Willis and Geno Smith are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.03 receiving TDs and 1.28 rushing TDs across these offenses. 14 projected offensive players have High role confidence. MIA's largest modeled scorer contribution is Ollie Gordon II at 0.33 offensive TDs, with 68.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Ollie Gordon II's rushing-TD matchup against NYJ is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 42.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). MIA's validated current starting QB is Malik Willis (98.0% expected snaps). NYJ's largest modeled scorer contribution is Breece Hall at 0.34 offensive TDs, with 57.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Mason Taylor's receiving-TD matchup against MIA is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 23.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NYJ's validated current starting QB is Geno Smith (98.0% expected snaps).
- Ollie Gordon II — 0.280 rushing TDs + 0.050 receiving TDs • 68.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Ollie Gordon II — defense rating 42.4/100 against NYJ • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Malik Willis — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Breece Hall — 0.254 rushing TDs + 0.089 receiving TDs • 57.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Mason Taylor — defense rating 23.2/100 against MIA • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- Geno Smith — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Malik Willis
QB • MIA • 15.66 DK projected
Geno Smith
QB • NYJ • 15.20 DK projected
Breece Hall
RB • NYJ • 14.41 DK projected
Garrett Wilson
WR • NYJ • 13.25 DK projected
Pat Rank #14Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
CLE @ TEN
Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 7
Pat's Intelligence
3.17
Expected Offensive TDs
CLE
1.60
Expected offensive TDs
TEN
1.57
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
37.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #14 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 22, 7:57 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- CLE
Quinshon Judkins leads at 0.46 expected TDs.
Quinshon Judkins: favorable rushing-TD matchup (43.2/100).
- TEN
Carnell Tate leads at 0.35 expected TDs.
Daniel Bellinger: favorable receiving-TD matchup (42.6/100).
QB coverage
Deshaun Watson and Cam Ward are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.06 receiving TDs and 1.11 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. CLE's largest modeled scorer contribution is Quinshon Judkins at 0.46 offensive TDs, with 56.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Quinshon Judkins's rushing-TD matchup against TEN is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 43.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CLE's validated current starting QB is Deshaun Watson (98.0% expected snaps). TEN's largest modeled scorer contribution is Carnell Tate at 0.35 offensive TDs, with 78.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Daniel Bellinger's receiving-TD matchup against CLE is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 42.6/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). TEN's validated current starting QB is Cam Ward (98.0% expected snaps).
- Quinshon Judkins — 0.383 rushing TDs + 0.073 receiving TDs • 56.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Quinshon Judkins — defense rating 43.2/100 against TEN • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Deshaun Watson — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Carnell Tate — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.350 receiving TDs • 78.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Daniel Bellinger — defense rating 42.6/100 against CLE • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- Cam Ward — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Deshaun Watson
QB • CLE • 16.49 DK projected
Carnell Tate
WR • TEN • 13.14 DK projected
Quinshon Judkins
RB • CLE • 12.49 DK projected
Cam Ward
QB • TEN • 11.67 DK projected