Historical BestFantasyPicks projection snapshot for NFL Week 6. This saved full-week preview is not a current recommendation or a record of final scores.
Analysis captured Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT • Frozen Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM EDT • Published Tue, Oct 20, 8:11 AM EDT
Projections updated Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT • Schedule updated Thu, Oct 15, 7:50 PM EDT
Final modeled rushing and receiving TDs only; passing TDs are excluded to avoid double counting. These are not predicted final scores. Sportsbook totals are the saved market context at capture time.
Pat Rank #1Highest Scoring Potential
BUF @ LV
Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
5.22
Expected Offensive TDs
BUF
3.02
Expected offensive TDs
LV
2.21
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
53.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #1 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Pat & Market Agree — High Scoring
Why this game ranks here
- BUF
James Cook leads at 0.85 expected TDs.
James Cook: favorable rushing-TD matchup (30.2/100).
- LV
Ashton Jeanty leads at 0.61 expected TDs.
Ashton Jeanty: favorable rushing-TD matchup (14.8/100).
QB coverage
Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 3.06 receiving TDs and 2.16 rushing TDs across these offenses. 11 projected offensive players have High role confidence. BUF's largest modeled scorer contribution is James Cook at 0.85 offensive TDs, with 62.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. James Cook's rushing-TD matchup against LV is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 30.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). BUF's validated current starting QB is Josh Allen (98.0% expected snaps). LV's largest modeled scorer contribution is Ashton Jeanty at 0.61 offensive TDs, with 68.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Ashton Jeanty's rushing-TD matchup against BUF is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 14.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). LV's validated current starting QB is Kirk Cousins (98.0% expected snaps).
- James Cook — 0.784 rushing TDs + 0.066 receiving TDs • 62.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- James Cook — defense rating 30.2/100 against LV • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Josh Allen — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Ashton Jeanty — 0.365 rushing TDs + 0.246 receiving TDs • 68.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Ashton Jeanty — defense rating 14.8/100 against BUF • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Kirk Cousins — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Josh Allen
QB • BUF • 24.52 DK projected
James Cook
RB • BUF • 20.15 DK projected
Kirk Cousins
QB • LV • 19.13 DK projected
Ashton Jeanty
RB • LV • 18.18 DK projected
Pat Rank #2Highest Scoring Potential
ARI @ LAR
Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
5.10
Expected Offensive TDs
ARI
1.98
Expected offensive TDs
LAR
3.12
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
51.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #3 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Pat & Market Agree — High Scoring
Why this game ranks here
- ARI
Trey McBride leads at 0.54 expected TDs.
Kendrick Bourne: favorable receiving-TD matchup (33.6/100).
- LAR
Kyren Williams leads at 0.93 expected TDs.
Puka Nacua: favorable receiving-TD matchup (29.0/100).
QB coverage
Jacoby Brissett and Matthew Stafford are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 3.67 receiving TDs and 1.43 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. ARI's largest modeled scorer contribution is Trey McBride at 0.54 offensive TDs, with 92.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Kendrick Bourne's receiving-TD matchup against LAR is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 33.6/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). ARI's validated current starting QB is Jacoby Brissett (98.0% expected snaps). LAR's largest modeled scorer contribution is Kyren Williams at 0.93 offensive TDs, with 75.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Puka Nacua's receiving-TD matchup against ARI is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 29.0/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). LAR's validated current starting QB is Matthew Stafford (98.0% expected snaps).
- Trey McBride — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.536 receiving TDs • 92.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Kendrick Bourne — defense rating 33.6/100 against LAR • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Jacoby Brissett — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Kyren Williams — 0.616 rushing TDs + 0.317 receiving TDs • 75.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Puka Nacua — defense rating 29.0/100 against ARI • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Matthew Stafford — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Puka Nacua
WR • LAR • 28.55 DK projected
Matthew Stafford
QB • LAR • 26.51 DK projected
Kyren Williams
RB • LAR • 22.66 DK projected
Jacoby Brissett
QB • ARI • 20.31 DK projected
Pat Rank #3High Scoring Potential
CHI @ ATL
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
4.21
Expected Offensive TDs
CHI
2.15
Expected offensive TDs
ATL
2.06
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
51.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #3 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Pat & Market Agree — High Scoring
Why this game ranks here
- CHI
D'Andre Swift leads at 0.44 expected TDs.
Colston Loveland: favorable receiving-TD matchup (49.8/100).
- ATL
Bijan Robinson leads at 0.63 expected TDs.
Drake London: favorable receiving-TD matchup (36.1/100).
QB coverage
Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr. are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.87 receiving TDs and 1.34 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. CHI's largest modeled scorer contribution is D'Andre Swift at 0.44 offensive TDs, with 54.0% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Colston Loveland's receiving-TD matchup against ATL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 49.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CHI's validated current starting QB is Caleb Williams (98.0% expected snaps). ATL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Bijan Robinson at 0.63 offensive TDs, with 71.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Drake London's receiving-TD matchup against CHI is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 36.1/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). ATL's validated current starting QB is Michael Penix Jr. (98.0% expected snaps).
- D'Andre Swift — 0.358 rushing TDs + 0.080 receiving TDs • 54.0% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
- Colston Loveland — defense rating 49.8/100 against ATL • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- Caleb Williams — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Bijan Robinson — 0.464 rushing TDs + 0.166 receiving TDs • 71.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Drake London — defense rating 36.1/100 against CHI • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Michael Penix Jr. — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Bijan Robinson
RB • ATL • 23.54 DK projected
Drake London
WR • ATL • 21.92 DK projected
Caleb Williams
QB • CHI • 19.55 DK projected
D'Andre Swift
RB • CHI • 14.03 DK projected
Pat Rank #4High Scoring Potential
DAL @ GB
Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
4.19
Expected Offensive TDs
DAL
2.56
Expected offensive TDs
GB
1.63
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
53.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #1 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Pat & Market Agree — High Scoring
Why this game ranks here
- DAL
Javonte Williams leads at 0.83 expected TDs.
Javonte Williams: favorable rushing-TD matchup (19.2/100).
- GB
Christian Watson leads at 0.40 expected TDs.
Christian Watson: favorable receiving-TD matchup (30.3/100).
QB coverage
Dak Prescott and Jordan Love are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.98 receiving TDs and 1.21 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. DAL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Javonte Williams at 0.83 offensive TDs, with 78.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Javonte Williams's rushing-TD matchup against GB is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 19.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). DAL's validated current starting QB is Dak Prescott (98.0% expected snaps). GB's largest modeled scorer contribution is Christian Watson at 0.40 offensive TDs, with 76.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Christian Watson's receiving-TD matchup against DAL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 30.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). GB's validated current starting QB is Jordan Love (98.0% expected snaps).
- Javonte Williams — 0.683 rushing TDs + 0.145 receiving TDs • 78.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Javonte Williams — defense rating 19.2/100 against GB • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Dak Prescott — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Christian Watson — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.395 receiving TDs • 76.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Christian Watson — defense rating 30.3/100 against DAL • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Jordan Love — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Jordan Love
QB • GB • 22.27 DK projected
CeeDee Lamb
WR • DAL • 21.24 DK projected
Dak Prescott
QB • DAL • 19.56 DK projected
Christian Watson
WR • GB • 18.13 DK projected
Pat Rank #5Above Average
HOU @ JAX
Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
4.18
Expected Offensive TDs
HOU
1.99
Expected offensive TDs
JAX
2.19
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
42.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #9 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Pat More Bullish
Why this game ranks here
- HOU
Nico Collins leads at 0.45 expected TDs.
Dalton Schultz: favorable receiving-TD matchup (47.7/100).
- JAX
Bhayshul Tuten leads at 0.67 expected TDs.
Parker Washington: favorable receiving-TD matchup (44.3/100).
QB coverage
C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.71 receiving TDs and 1.47 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. HOU's largest modeled scorer contribution is Nico Collins at 0.45 offensive TDs, with 70.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Dalton Schultz's receiving-TD matchup against JAX is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 47.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). HOU's validated current starting QB is C.J. Stroud (98.0% expected snaps). JAX's largest modeled scorer contribution is Bhayshul Tuten at 0.67 offensive TDs, with 58.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Parker Washington's receiving-TD matchup against HOU is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 44.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). JAX's validated current starting QB is Trevor Lawrence (98.0% expected snaps).
- Nico Collins — 0.063 rushing TDs + 0.388 receiving TDs • 70.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Dalton Schultz — defense rating 47.7/100 against JAX • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- C.J. Stroud — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Bhayshul Tuten — 0.578 rushing TDs + 0.096 receiving TDs • 58.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Parker Washington — defense rating 44.3/100 against HOU • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Trevor Lawrence — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Trevor Lawrence
QB • JAX • 19.09 DK projected
C.J. Stroud
QB • HOU • 16.82 DK projected
Nico Collins
WR • HOU • 16.33 DK projected
Parker Washington
WR • JAX • 13.08 DK projected
Pat Rank #6Above Average
NYJ @ NE
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
4.08
Expected Offensive TDs
NYJ
1.68
Expected offensive TDs
NE
2.40
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
43.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #8 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- NYJ
Garrett Wilson leads at 0.40 expected TDs.
Braelon Allen: favorable rushing-TD matchup (44.8/100).
- NE
Rhamondre Stevenson leads at 0.72 expected TDs.
Rhamondre Stevenson: favorable rushing-TD matchup (28.5/100).
QB coverage
Geno Smith and Drake Maye are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.54 receiving TDs and 1.54 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. NYJ's largest modeled scorer contribution is Garrett Wilson at 0.40 offensive TDs, with 95.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Braelon Allen's rushing-TD matchup against NE is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 44.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NYJ's validated current starting QB is Geno Smith (98.0% expected snaps). NE's largest modeled scorer contribution is Rhamondre Stevenson at 0.72 offensive TDs, with 63.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Rhamondre Stevenson's rushing-TD matchup against NYJ is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 28.5/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NE's validated current starting QB is Drake Maye (98.0% expected snaps).
- Garrett Wilson — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.400 receiving TDs • 95.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Braelon Allen — defense rating 44.8/100 against NE • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Geno Smith — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Rhamondre Stevenson — 0.539 rushing TDs + 0.183 receiving TDs • 63.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Rhamondre Stevenson — defense rating 28.5/100 against NYJ • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Drake Maye — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Drake Maye
QB • NE • 21.67 DK projected
Geno Smith
QB • NYJ • 15.14 DK projected
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB • NE • 14.90 DK projected
Garrett Wilson
WR • NYJ • 14.77 DK projected
Pat Rank #7Above Average
WAS @ SF
Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
4.04
Expected Offensive TDs
WAS
1.85
Expected offensive TDs
SF
2.19
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
51.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #3 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- WAS
Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads at 0.34 expected TDs.
Terry McLaurin: favorable receiving-TD matchup (33.7/100).
- SF
Christian McCaffrey leads at 0.60 expected TDs.
George Kittle: favorable receiving-TD matchup (9.7/100).
QB coverage
Jayden Daniels and Brock Purdy are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.52 receiving TDs and 1.52 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. WAS's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jacory Croskey-Merritt at 0.34 offensive TDs, with 45.7% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Terry McLaurin's receiving-TD matchup against SF is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 33.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). WAS's validated current starting QB is Jayden Daniels (98.0% expected snaps). SF's largest modeled scorer contribution is Christian McCaffrey at 0.60 offensive TDs, with 79.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. George Kittle's receiving-TD matchup against WAS is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 9.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). SF's validated current starting QB is Brock Purdy (98.0% expected snaps).
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 0.312 rushing TDs + 0.024 receiving TDs • 45.7% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
- Terry McLaurin — defense rating 33.7/100 against SF • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Jayden Daniels — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Christian McCaffrey — 0.380 rushing TDs + 0.217 receiving TDs • 79.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- George Kittle — defense rating 9.7/100 against WAS • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- Brock Purdy — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Brock Purdy
QB • SF • 25.13 DK projected
Christian McCaffrey
RB • SF • 17.41 DK projected
Jayden Daniels
QB • WAS • 17.07 DK projected
George Kittle
TE • SF • 14.59 DK projected
Pat Rank #8Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
TEN @ IND
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
3.94
Expected Offensive TDs
TEN
1.56
Expected offensive TDs
IND
2.38
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
44.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #7 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- TEN
Tony Pollard leads at 0.36 expected TDs.
Tony Pollard: favorable rushing-TD matchup (25.1/100).
- IND
Jonathan Taylor leads at 0.85 expected TDs.
Jonathan Taylor: favorable rushing-TD matchup (48.6/100).
QB coverage
Cam Ward and Daniel Jones are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.44 receiving TDs and 1.49 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. TEN's largest modeled scorer contribution is Tony Pollard at 0.36 offensive TDs, with 51.3% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Tony Pollard's rushing-TD matchup against IND is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 25.1/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). TEN's validated current starting QB is Cam Ward (98.0% expected snaps). IND's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jonathan Taylor at 0.85 offensive TDs, with 76.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jonathan Taylor's rushing-TD matchup against TEN is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 48.6/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). IND's validated current starting QB is Daniel Jones (98.0% expected snaps).
- Tony Pollard — 0.318 rushing TDs + 0.043 receiving TDs • 51.3% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
- Tony Pollard — defense rating 25.1/100 against IND • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Cam Ward — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Jonathan Taylor — 0.747 rushing TDs + 0.100 receiving TDs • 76.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Jonathan Taylor — defense rating 48.6/100 against TEN • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Daniel Jones — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Jonathan Taylor
RB • IND • 17.71 DK projected
Daniel Jones
QB • IND • 14.66 DK projected
Cam Ward
QB • TEN • 12.94 DK projected
Tyler Warren
TE • IND • 12.89 DK projected
Pat Rank #9Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
NO @ NYG
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
3.83
Expected Offensive TDs
NO
1.74
Expected offensive TDs
NYG
2.09
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
45.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #6 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- NO
Chris Olave leads at 0.55 expected TDs.
Chris Olave: favorable receiving-TD matchup (30.2/100).
- NYG
Cam Skattebo leads at 0.64 expected TDs.
Cam Skattebo: favorable rushing-TD matchup (21.7/100).
QB coverage
Tyler Shough and Jameis Winston are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.61 receiving TDs and 1.22 rushing TDs across these offenses. 11 projected offensive players have High role confidence. NO's largest modeled scorer contribution is Chris Olave at 0.55 offensive TDs, with 87.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Chris Olave's receiving-TD matchup against NYG is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 30.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NO's validated current starting QB is Tyler Shough (98.0% expected snaps). NYG's largest modeled scorer contribution is Cam Skattebo at 0.64 offensive TDs, with 68.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Cam Skattebo's rushing-TD matchup against NO is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 21.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NYG's validated current starting QB is Jameis Winston (98.0% expected snaps).
- Chris Olave — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.548 receiving TDs • 87.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Chris Olave — defense rating 30.2/100 against NYG • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Tyler Shough — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Cam Skattebo — 0.546 rushing TDs + 0.094 receiving TDs • 68.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Cam Skattebo — defense rating 21.7/100 against NO • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Jameis Winston — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Chris Olave
WR • NO • 22.81 DK projected
Tyler Shough
QB • NO • 19.78 DK projected
Jameis Winston
QB • NYG • 18.14 DK projected
Malik Nabers
WR • NYG • 15.05 DK projected
Pat Rank #10Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
BAL @ CLE
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
3.83
Expected Offensive TDs
BAL
2.23
Expected offensive TDs
CLE
1.60
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
40.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #11 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- BAL
Derrick Henry leads at 0.71 expected TDs.
Mark Andrews: favorable receiving-TD matchup (49.1/100).
- CLE
Quinshon Judkins leads at 0.47 expected TDs.
Quinshon Judkins: favorable rushing-TD matchup (37.5/100).
QB coverage
Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.17 receiving TDs and 1.66 rushing TDs across these offenses. 11 projected offensive players have High role confidence. BAL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Derrick Henry at 0.71 offensive TDs, with 61.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Mark Andrews's receiving-TD matchup against CLE is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 49.1/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). BAL's validated current starting QB is Lamar Jackson (98.0% expected snaps). CLE's largest modeled scorer contribution is Quinshon Judkins at 0.47 offensive TDs, with 56.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Quinshon Judkins's rushing-TD matchup against BAL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 37.5/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CLE's validated current starting QB is Deshaun Watson (98.0% expected snaps).
- Derrick Henry — 0.662 rushing TDs + 0.045 receiving TDs • 61.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Mark Andrews — defense rating 49.1/100 against CLE • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- Lamar Jackson — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Quinshon Judkins — 0.391 rushing TDs + 0.076 receiving TDs • 56.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Quinshon Judkins — defense rating 37.5/100 against BAL • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Deshaun Watson — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Zay Flowers
WR • BAL • 17.99 DK projected
Lamar Jackson
QB • BAL • 17.80 DK projected
Derrick Henry
RB • BAL • 17.73 DK projected
Deshaun Watson
QB • CLE • 17.65 DK projected
Pat Rank #11Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
LAC @ KC
Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
3.66
Expected Offensive TDs
LAC
2.09
Expected offensive TDs
KC
1.58
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
41.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #10 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- LAC
Omarion Hampton leads at 0.29 expected TDs.
Charlie Kolar: favorable receiving-TD matchup (39.4/100).
- KC
Kenneth Walker III leads at 0.51 expected TDs.
Kenneth Walker III: favorable rushing-TD matchup (37.8/100).
QB coverage
Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.24 receiving TDs and 1.43 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. LAC's largest modeled scorer contribution is Omarion Hampton at 0.29 offensive TDs, with 35.7% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Charlie Kolar's receiving-TD matchup against KC is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 39.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). LAC's validated current starting QB is Justin Herbert (98.0% expected snaps). KC's largest modeled scorer contribution is Kenneth Walker III at 0.51 offensive TDs, with 76.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Kenneth Walker III's rushing-TD matchup against LAC is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 37.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). KC's validated current starting QB is Patrick Mahomes (98.0% expected snaps).
- Omarion Hampton — 0.253 rushing TDs + 0.038 receiving TDs • 35.7% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
- Charlie Kolar — defense rating 39.4/100 against KC • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- Justin Herbert — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Kenneth Walker III — 0.432 rushing TDs + 0.077 receiving TDs • 76.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Kenneth Walker III — defense rating 37.8/100 against LAC • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Patrick Mahomes — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Patrick Mahomes
QB • KC • 20.11 DK projected
Kenneth Walker III
RB • KC • 19.76 DK projected
Justin Herbert
QB • LAC • 15.86 DK projected
Rashee Rice
WR • KC • 12.40 DK projected
Pat Rank #12Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
CAR @ PHI
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
3.63
Expected Offensive TDs
CAR
1.78
Expected offensive TDs
PHI
1.85
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
38.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #14 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- CAR
Tetairoa McMillan leads at 0.46 expected TDs.
Jalen Coker: favorable receiving-TD matchup (43.2/100).
- PHI
Dallas Goedert leads at 0.39 expected TDs.
Dallas Goedert: favorable receiving-TD matchup (24.8/100).
QB coverage
Bryce Young and Tanner McKee are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.87 receiving TDs and 0.77 rushing TDs across these offenses. 11 projected offensive players have High role confidence. CAR's largest modeled scorer contribution is Tetairoa McMillan at 0.46 offensive TDs, with 88.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jalen Coker's receiving-TD matchup against PHI is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 43.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CAR's validated current starting QB is Bryce Young (98.0% expected snaps). PHI's largest modeled scorer contribution is Dallas Goedert at 0.39 offensive TDs, with 82.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Dallas Goedert's receiving-TD matchup against CAR is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 24.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). PHI's validated current starting QB is Tanner McKee (98.0% expected snaps).
- Tetairoa McMillan — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.459 receiving TDs • 88.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Jalen Coker — defense rating 43.2/100 against PHI • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Bryce Young — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Dallas Goedert — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.394 receiving TDs • 82.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Dallas Goedert — defense rating 24.8/100 against CAR • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
- Tanner McKee — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Bryce Young
QB • CAR • 19.39 DK projected
Tetairoa McMillan
WR • CAR • 16.92 DK projected
Jalen Coker
WR • CAR • 12.90 DK projected
DeVonta Smith
WR • PHI • 12.37 DK projected
Pat Rank #13Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
SEA @ DEN
Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
3.62
Expected Offensive TDs
SEA
1.85
Expected offensive TDs
DEN
1.77
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
40.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #11 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- SEA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads at 0.50 expected TDs.
Emanuel Wilson: favorable rushing-TD matchup (46.0/100).
- DEN
J.K. Dobbins leads at 0.36 expected TDs.
RJ Harvey: favorable receiving-TD matchup (31.8/100).
QB coverage
Sam Darnold and Bo Nix are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.43 receiving TDs and 1.19 rushing TDs across these offenses. 8 projected offensive players have High role confidence. SEA's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 0.50 offensive TDs, with 86.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Emanuel Wilson's rushing-TD matchup against DEN is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 46.0/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). SEA's validated current starting QB is Sam Darnold (98.0% expected snaps). DEN's largest modeled scorer contribution is J.K. Dobbins at 0.36 offensive TDs, with 44.3% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. RJ Harvey's receiving-TD matchup against SEA is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 31.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). DEN's validated current starting QB is Bo Nix (98.0% expected snaps).
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.499 receiving TDs • 86.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Emanuel Wilson — defense rating 46.0/100 against DEN • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Sam Darnold — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- J.K. Dobbins — 0.316 rushing TDs + 0.043 receiving TDs • 44.3% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
- RJ Harvey — defense rating 31.8/100 against SEA • Defense vs RB receiving TDs (LB/S personnel-adjusted)
- Bo Nix — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR • SEA • 21.85 DK projected
Sam Darnold
QB • SEA • 16.95 DK projected
Bo Nix
QB • DEN • 15.67 DK projected
Jaylen Waddle
WR • DEN • 9.96 DK projected
Pat Rank #14Average / Lower Relative Opportunity
PIT @ TB
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM EDT • Week 6
Pat's Intelligence
3.44
Expected Offensive TDs
PIT
1.82
Expected offensive TDs
TB
1.62
Expected offensive TDs
Sportsbook Total
39.5
Points • game over/under
Market rank #13 among covered games with totals
DraftKings projection-time snapshot • As of Thu, Oct 15, 7:51 PM EDT
Pat vs Market
Similar / Neutral
Why this game ranks here
- PIT
Jaylen Warren leads at 0.51 expected TDs.
Germie Bernard: favorable receiving-TD matchup (23.6/100).
- TB
Bucky Irving leads at 0.40 expected TDs.
Emeka Egbuka: favorable receiving-TD matchup (47.2/100).
QB coverage
Aaron Rodgers and Jalon Daniels are validated starters.
More analysis⌄
Current validated player projections contribute 2.33 receiving TDs and 1.11 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. PIT's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jaylen Warren at 0.51 offensive TDs, with 91.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Germie Bernard's receiving-TD matchup against TB is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 23.6/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). PIT's validated current starting QB is Aaron Rodgers (98.0% expected snaps). TB's largest modeled scorer contribution is Bucky Irving at 0.40 offensive TDs, with 55.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Emeka Egbuka's receiving-TD matchup against PIT is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 47.2/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). TB's validated current starting QB is Jalon Daniels (98.0% expected snaps).
- Jaylen Warren — 0.357 rushing TDs + 0.149 receiving TDs • 91.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Germie Bernard — defense rating 23.6/100 against TB • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Aaron Rodgers — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
- Bucky Irving — 0.243 rushing TDs + 0.156 receiving TDs • 55.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
- Emeka Egbuka — defense rating 47.2/100 against PIT • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
- Jalon Daniels — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
Fantasy players to watch
Aaron Rodgers
QB • PIT • 19.72 DK projected
Jaylen Warren
RB • PIT • 19.58 DK projected
Bucky Irving
RB • TB • 14.84 DK projected
Jalon Daniels
QB • TB • 13.28 DK projected