NFL High Scoring Games — Week 5, 2026

Current validated player projections contribute 3.57 receiving TDs and 2.06 rushing TDs across these offenses. 13 projected offensive players have High role confidence. BUF's largest modeled scorer contribution is James Cook at 0.63 offensive TDs, with 66.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Khalil Shakir's receiving-TD matchup against LAR is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 41.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). BUF's validated current starting QB is Josh Allen (100.0% expected snaps). LAR's largest modeled scorer contribution is Kyren Williams at 0.69 offensive TDs, with 69.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Kyren Williams's rushing-TD matchup against BUF is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 31.6/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). LAR's validated current starting QB is Matthew Stafford (100.0% expected snaps).

• James Cook — 0.547 rushing TDs + 0.081 receiving TDs • 66.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Khalil Shakir — defense rating 41.8/100 against LAR • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
• Josh Allen — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
• Kyren Williams — 0.549 rushing TDs + 0.140 receiving TDs • 69.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Kyren Williams — defense rating 31.6/100 against BUF • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• Matthew Stafford — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.93 receiving TDs and 1.64 rushing TDs across these offenses. 14 projected offensive players have High role confidence. IND's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jonathan Taylor at 0.71 offensive TDs, with 83.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Tyler Warren's receiving-TD matchup against PIT is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 37.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). IND's validated current starting QB is Daniel Jones (100.0% expected snaps). PIT's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jaylen Warren at 0.53 offensive TDs, with 86.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jaylen Warren's rushing-TD matchup against IND is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 29.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). PIT's validated current starting QB is Aaron Rodgers (98.7% expected snaps).

• Jonathan Taylor — 0.608 rushing TDs + 0.102 receiving TDs • 83.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Tyler Warren — defense rating 37.4/100 against PIT • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
• Daniel Jones — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
• Jaylen Warren — 0.418 rushing TDs + 0.115 receiving TDs • 86.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Jaylen Warren — defense rating 29.4/100 against IND • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• Aaron Rodgers — validated current starting QB • 98.7% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 3.38 receiving TDs and 1.13 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. DET's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jahmyr Gibbs at 0.74 offensive TDs, with 79.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jahmyr Gibbs's rushing-TD matchup against ARI is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 47.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). DET's validated current starting QB is Jared Goff (100.0% expected snaps). ARI's largest modeled scorer contribution is Trey McBride at 0.42 offensive TDs, with 92.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Trey McBride's receiving-TD matchup against DET is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 16.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). ARI's validated current starting QB is Jacoby Brissett (100.0% expected snaps).

• Jahmyr Gibbs — 0.545 rushing TDs + 0.197 receiving TDs • 79.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Jahmyr Gibbs — defense rating 47.8/100 against ARI • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• Jared Goff — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
• Trey McBride — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.420 receiving TDs • 92.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Trey McBride — defense rating 16.3/100 against DET • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
• Jacoby Brissett — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.97 receiving TDs and 1.47 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. PHI's largest modeled scorer contribution is Dallas Goedert at 0.44 offensive TDs, with 95.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Dallas Goedert's receiving-TD matchup against JAX is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 42.1/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). PHI's validated current starting QB is Jalen Hurts (98.0% expected snaps). JAX's largest modeled scorer contribution is Trevor Lawrence at 0.33 offensive TDs, with 98.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Trevor Lawrence's rushing-TD matchup against PHI is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 7.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). JAX's validated current starting QB is Trevor Lawrence (98.3% expected snaps).

• Dallas Goedert — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.440 receiving TDs • 95.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Dallas Goedert — defense rating 42.1/100 against JAX • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
• Jalen Hurts — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
• Trevor Lawrence — 0.334 rushing TDs + 0.000 receiving TDs • 98.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Trevor Lawrence — defense rating 7.7/100 against PHI • Defense vs QB rushing TDs (2026 personnel-adjusted)
• Trevor Lawrence — validated current starting QB • 98.3% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.97 receiving TDs and 1.45 rushing TDs across these offenses. 11 projected offensive players have High role confidence. LV's largest modeled scorer contribution is Ashton Jeanty at 0.53 offensive TDs, with 77.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Cody White's receiving-TD matchup against NE is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 49.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). LV's validated current starting QB is Kirk Cousins (100.0% expected snaps). NE's largest modeled scorer contribution is Rhamondre Stevenson at 0.54 offensive TDs, with 67.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Hunter Henry's receiving-TD matchup against LV is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 26.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NE's validated current starting QB is Drake Maye (98.0% expected snaps).

• Ashton Jeanty — 0.356 rushing TDs + 0.173 receiving TDs • 77.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Cody White — defense rating 49.7/100 against NE • Defense vs WR3 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
• Kirk Cousins — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
• Rhamondre Stevenson — 0.416 rushing TDs + 0.124 receiving TDs • 67.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Hunter Henry — defense rating 26.4/100 against LV • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
• Drake Maye — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.80 receiving TDs and 1.51 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. DEN's largest modeled scorer contribution is Courtland Sutton at 0.35 offensive TDs, with 77.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. J.K. Dobbins's rushing-TD matchup against LAC is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 45.6/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). DEN's validated current starting QB is Bo Nix (99.3% expected snaps). LAC's largest modeled scorer contribution is Omarion Hampton at 0.37 offensive TDs, with 46.7% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Quentin Johnston's receiving-TD matchup against DEN is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 40.9/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). LAC's validated current starting QB is Justin Herbert (100.0% expected snaps).

• Courtland Sutton — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.350 receiving TDs • 77.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• J.K. Dobbins — defense rating 45.6/100 against LAC • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• Bo Nix — validated current starting QB • 99.3% expected snaps
• Omarion Hampton — 0.272 rushing TDs + 0.099 receiving TDs • 46.7% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
• Quentin Johnston — defense rating 40.9/100 against DEN • Defense vs WR2 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
• Justin Herbert — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.90 receiving TDs and 1.24 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. TB's largest modeled scorer contribution is Bucky Irving at 0.47 offensive TDs, with 63.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Bucky Irving's rushing-TD matchup against DAL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 23.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). TB's validated current starting QB is Baker Mayfield (98.0% expected snaps). DAL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Javonte Williams at 0.64 offensive TDs, with 76.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jake Ferguson's receiving-TD matchup against TB is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 22.0/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). DAL's validated current starting QB is Dak Prescott (100.0% expected snaps).

• Bucky Irving — 0.299 rushing TDs + 0.170 receiving TDs • 63.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Bucky Irving — defense rating 23.4/100 against DAL • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• Baker Mayfield — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
• Javonte Williams — 0.546 rushing TDs + 0.089 receiving TDs • 76.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Jake Ferguson — defense rating 22.0/100 against TB • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
• Dak Prescott — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.91 receiving TDs and 1.21 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. SF's largest modeled scorer contribution is Christian McCaffrey at 0.62 offensive TDs, with 69.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Christian McCaffrey's receiving-TD matchup against SEA is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 34.0/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). SF's validated current starting QB is Brock Purdy (98.0% expected snaps). SEA's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 0.50 offensive TDs, with 80.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's receiving-TD matchup against SF is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 38.6/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). SEA's validated current starting QB is Sam Darnold (98.0% expected snaps).

• Christian McCaffrey — 0.359 rushing TDs + 0.261 receiving TDs • 69.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Christian McCaffrey — defense rating 34.0/100 against SEA • Defense vs RB receiving TDs (LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• Brock Purdy — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.497 receiving TDs • 80.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — defense rating 38.6/100 against SF • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
• Sam Darnold — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.62 receiving TDs and 1.41 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. BAL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Derrick Henry at 0.60 offensive TDs, with 60.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Mark Andrews's receiving-TD matchup against ATL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 46.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). BAL's validated current starting QB is Lamar Jackson (98.0% expected snaps). ATL's largest modeled scorer contribution is Bijan Robinson at 0.52 offensive TDs, with 61.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Drake London's receiving-TD matchup against BAL is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 37.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). ATL's validated current starting QB is Michael Penix Jr. (100.0% expected snaps).

• Derrick Henry — 0.573 rushing TDs + 0.028 receiving TDs • 60.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Mark Andrews — defense rating 46.7/100 against ATL • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
• Lamar Jackson — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
• Bijan Robinson — 0.360 rushing TDs + 0.160 receiving TDs • 61.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Drake London — defense rating 37.4/100 against BAL • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
• Michael Penix Jr. — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.75 receiving TDs and 1.26 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. CIN's largest modeled scorer contribution is Chase Brown at 0.67 offensive TDs, with 73.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Chase Brown's rushing-TD matchup against MIA is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 44.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CIN's validated current starting QB is Joe Burrow (100.0% expected snaps). MIA's largest modeled scorer contribution is Ollie Gordon II at 0.34 offensive TDs, with 56.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Malik Willis's rushing-TD matchup against CIN is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 47.7/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). MIA's validated current starting QB is Malik Willis (100.0% expected snaps).

• Chase Brown — 0.398 rushing TDs + 0.271 receiving TDs • 73.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Chase Brown — defense rating 44.7/100 against MIA • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• Joe Burrow — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
• Ollie Gordon II — 0.261 rushing TDs + 0.074 receiving TDs • 56.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Malik Willis — defense rating 47.7/100 against CIN • Defense vs QB rushing TDs (2026 personnel-adjusted)
• Malik Willis — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.60 receiving TDs and 1.18 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. HOU's largest modeled scorer contribution is David Montgomery at 0.48 offensive TDs, with 57.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. David Montgomery's rushing-TD matchup against TEN is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 35.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). HOU's validated current starting QB is C.J. Stroud (100.0% expected snaps). TEN's largest modeled scorer contribution is Tony Pollard at 0.35 offensive TDs, with 53.7% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Tony Pollard's rushing-TD matchup against HOU is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 44.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). TEN's validated current starting QB is Cam Ward (100.0% expected snaps).

• David Montgomery — 0.424 rushing TDs + 0.059 receiving TDs • 57.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
• David Montgomery — defense rating 35.3/100 against TEN • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• C.J. Stroud — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps
• Tony Pollard — 0.309 rushing TDs + 0.042 receiving TDs • 53.7% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
• Tony Pollard — defense rating 44.8/100 against HOU • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• Cam Ward — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.38 receiving TDs and 1.28 rushing TDs across these offenses. 10 projected offensive players have High role confidence. NYG's largest modeled scorer contribution is Cam Skattebo at 0.49 offensive TDs, with 66.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Malik Nabers's receiving-TD matchup against WAS is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 20.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NYG's validated current starting QB is Jameis Winston (98.0% expected snaps). WAS's largest modeled scorer contribution is Jacory Croskey-Merritt at 0.34 offensive TDs, with 46.3% expected snaps and Medium role confidence. Terry McLaurin's receiving-TD matchup against NYG is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 28.1/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). WAS's validated current starting QB is Jayden Daniels (100.0% expected snaps).

• Cam Skattebo — 0.371 rushing TDs + 0.118 receiving TDs • 66.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Malik Nabers — defense rating 20.4/100 against WAS • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
• Jameis Winston — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 0.324 rushing TDs + 0.017 receiving TDs • 46.3% expected snaps • Medium role confidence
• Terry McLaurin — defense rating 28.1/100 against NYG • Defense vs WR1 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
• Jayden Daniels — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.57 receiving TDs and 1.03 rushing TDs across these offenses. 11 projected offensive players have High role confidence. CHI's largest modeled scorer contribution is D'Andre Swift at 0.52 offensive TDs, with 57.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. D'Andre Swift's rushing-TD matchup against GB is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 22.4/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CHI's validated current starting QB is Caleb Williams (98.0% expected snaps). GB's largest modeled scorer contribution is Tucker Kraft at 0.38 offensive TDs, with 88.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. Skyy Moore's receiving-TD matchup against CHI is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 43.6/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). GB's validated current starting QB is Jordan Love (100.0% expected snaps).

• D'Andre Swift — 0.459 rushing TDs + 0.064 receiving TDs • 57.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
• D'Andre Swift — defense rating 22.4/100 against GB • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• Caleb Williams — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
• Tucker Kraft — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.380 receiving TDs • 88.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Skyy Moore — defense rating 43.6/100 against CHI • Defense vs WR3 receiving TDs (role-specific live blend)
• Jordan Love — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.28 receiving TDs and 0.97 rushing TDs across these offenses. 11 projected offensive players have High role confidence. MIN's largest modeled scorer contribution is Aaron Jones at 0.36 offensive TDs, with 78.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Aaron Jones's rushing-TD matchup against NO is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 26.3/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). MIN's validated current starting QB is Kyler Murray (98.0% expected snaps). NO's largest modeled scorer contribution is Chris Olave at 0.42 offensive TDs, with 84.7% expected snaps and High role confidence. NO's validated current starting QB is Tyler Shough (100.0% expected snaps).

• Aaron Jones — 0.283 rushing TDs + 0.082 receiving TDs • 78.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Aaron Jones — defense rating 26.3/100 against NO • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• Kyler Murray — validated current starting QB • 98.0% expected snaps
• Chris Olave — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.422 receiving TDs • 84.7% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Tyler Shough — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps

Current validated player projections contribute 2.06 receiving TDs and 0.99 rushing TDs across these offenses. 12 projected offensive players have High role confidence. CLE's largest modeled scorer contribution is Quinshon Judkins at 0.45 offensive TDs, with 61.3% expected snaps and High role confidence. Quinshon Judkins's rushing-TD matchup against NYJ is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 19.0/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). CLE's validated current starting QB is Deshaun Watson (99.7% expected snaps). NYJ's largest modeled scorer contribution is Garrett Wilson at 0.32 offensive TDs, with 94.0% expected snaps and High role confidence. Mason Taylor's receiving-TD matchup against CLE is favorable in the existing model: defense rating 45.8/100 versus neutral 50 (lower is more favorable). NYJ's validated current starting QB is Geno Smith (100.0% expected snaps).

• Quinshon Judkins — 0.388 rushing TDs + 0.060 receiving TDs • 61.3% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Quinshon Judkins — defense rating 19.0/100 against NYJ • Defense vs RB rushing TDs (DL/LB/S personnel-adjusted)
• Deshaun Watson — validated current starting QB • 99.7% expected snaps
• Garrett Wilson — 0.000 rushing TDs + 0.323 receiving TDs • 94.0% expected snaps • High role confidence
• Mason Taylor — defense rating 45.8/100 against CLE • Defense vs TE TDs (LB/S/CB personnel-adjusted)
• Geno Smith — validated current starting QB • 100.0% expected snaps